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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.