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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still